NEW YORK – An overlooked 2013 Common Core analysis by the Carnegie Foundation predicts that shoddy implementation of the new learning standards will cause America’s school dropout rate to double.

Working with the McKinsey Group, Carnegie Foundation researchers determined that even the nation’s most effective teachers “cannot possibly meet the demand to raise student achievement to Common Core levels.”

That means millions of students will achieve “below the level needed for graduation and college success as defined by the Common Core,” the researchers concluded.

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“(Researchers) determined that the six-year dropout rate would double from 15% to 30%. If, as Carnegie projects, the four-year graduation rate drops from 75% to 53%, that would be a blow that Common Core probably couldn’t survive,” writes’s Alexander Russo, who is bringing new attention to the Carnegie Foundation’s 2013 report.

Russo adds that “high-poverty urban school systems, where the graduation rates have slowly risen to 65% or so” would surely see “their graduation rates would drop even further.”

“Even if they declined by the national average of 30%, the outcry should be deafening,” he predicts.

Russo asks a very logical question: Why haven’t Carnegie Foundation researchers sounded the alarm over their findings?

He surmises that foundation officials wanted to “focus on the positive” aspects of the report and were hesitant to thwart Bill Gates’ effort to bring “test-driven accountability” to the nation’s education system.

Russo writes, “If, over the last few years, (school) systems had focused on building personalized learning environments and if states had invested unlimited billions of dollars on high-poverty schools, Common Core might not have become a train wreck.”

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Without these “systematic supports” – which are unrealistic, Russo notes – it appears that Common Core supporters’ effort to solve one crisis (low levels of student learning) is laying the groundwork for a bigger, larger crisis involving school dropouts.

To quote economist Thomas Sowell: “There is usually only a limited amount of damage that can be done by dull or stupid people. For creating a truly monumental disaster, you need people with high IQs.”